On November 3rd, we hosted the prominent Wall Street strategist, Ed Yardeni, in Toronto for a fireside chat moderated by Jennifer Mersereau and Pat Sommerville, Co-CEOs of Hamilton ETFs. The discussion centered on his “Roaring 2020s” thesis, offering insights into the transformative trends defining the decade ahead.

Below are some of the key takeaways from the event as well as a link to subscribe to Ed’s research:

• CLICK HERE to subscribe to Yardeni QuickTakes (free trial)

The “Roaring 2020s – 2030s” Thesis

• Ed believes the current decade “rhymes” the 1920s, with each beginning in crisis but evolving into a period of innovation and growth.
• AI as an evolution, not a revolution: Artificial intelligence and cloud technology represent the next stage of a long digital transformation that began in the 1960s, driving productivity across the economy.
• His base case calls for continued economic expansion through this decade, with the potential for an extended “Roaring 2030s”.

Economic Growth, Inflation & Federal Reserve Policy

• The U.S. economy has absorbed pandemic shocks, rapid rate hikes, and geopolitical volatility with notable resilience.
• Productivity gains are offsetting softer employment data, allowing growth to continue without a meaningful downturn.
• Inflation is trending toward roughly 3%; tariffs and supply constraints have slowed progress toward the 2% target.
• Yardeni expects the 10 Year yield to be in the 4%–5% range and cautions that premature easing could reawaken bond vigilantes.

Consumers, Labour & Demographics

• Retiree spending remains a key driver: Baby boomers, holding about US$80 trillion in net worth, continue to support consumption in travel, leisure, and services.
• Demographic pressures are keeping the labour market tight, while rising real wages and productivity gains underpin ongoing economic resilience.

Technology & Capital Investment

• More than half of U.S. capital spending is now focused on technology, including cloud computing, AI, and automation infrastructure.
• Yardeni views AI as a long-term source of productivity that will become embedded in daily business processes, providing a lift to margins and earnings beyond the “Magnificent” names.

Market Outlook & Scenario Probabilities

Yardeni’s longer-term outlook calls for sustained earnings growth and for the S&P 500 to approach 10,000 by 2029, assuming stable multiples. Ed assigns the following probabilities to 3 potential scenarios:

• 50% Bull [Base Case]: Sustained growth and declining inflation driven by ongoing productivity improvements.
• 30% Melt Up: Policy remains too easy, and investor optimism drives valuations higher
• 20% Bear: Would require a genuine credit crunch, which policy responses have so far managed to prevent.

 

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