Rob Wessel was on BNN Bloomberg last week for the beginning of Canadian bank earnings to discuss TD Bank results and what they could mean for the rest of the group. He also provided his thoughts on: (i) TD Bank’s anti-money laundering probe; (ii) risks of mortgage resets; and (iii) the catalysts needed to drive better performance from Canadian bank stocks going forward. BNN Bloomberg: Rob…
Insights: Banks
U.S. Mid-Cap Financials — HUM Outperforms with Considerable Recovery Upside Remaining
The U.S. financials have been showing strong momentum this year outperforming the S&P 500[1], fueled by increased economic optimism and investor sentiment. Following earnings season, the large-cap financials, which typically set the tone for the rest of the sector, are leading the way up 13.27% YTD, while the mid-caps are up 7.38%[2] – creating an opportunity for investors (especially those overweight U.S. large-cap banks).
The Case for Australian Banks in Canadian Portfolios
It is well known that Canadian investors favour their domestic banking oligopoly for its history of solid growth and stable dividends. What is less well known is that Australia is home to one of the world’s best banking sectors, with nearly identical long-term returns and dividends to those of the Canadian banks.
HFG — The Secret Bull Market in Global Financials
The Hamilton Global Financials ETF (HFG) continues to benefit from excellent performance, having materially outperformed Canadian financials in the last 1, 2, and 3-year periods with lower volatility. Despite the global financial sector’s strong performance over the last six months, there has been remarkably little discussion about it as current interests (AI, the “magnificent 7”, and a fixation on the Federal Reserve/the path for interest rates)…
Canadian Banks: Buying Opportunity? (BNN Video)
Rob Wessel was on BNN Bloomberg to discuss the catalysts needed to get Canadian bank stocks moving from their low valuations, and if now is the right time to buy.
BMO/BNS Q1 2024 Takeaways (BNN Video)
Canadian bank earnings season began with BMO and BNS reporting Q1 results. This morning, Rob Wessel was on BNN Bloomberg discussing his key takeaways (see video below).
Canadian Banks: History Points to a Stronger 2024 (After Two Tough Years)
At the end of August, the S&P/TSX Canadian Diversified Bank Total Return Index (“Canadian bank index”) was lower versus two years earlier – a rare event. In fact, since its inception in May 2002, the Canadian bank index has had a negative rolling two-year return at just 24 month-ends (out of 232 month-ends)[1]. Historically, such an occurrence has represented a buying opportunity. Over the same 20+…
Canadian Banks: Three Ways the Banks Might “Clean Up” fQ4 (and Improve f2024)
The Canadian bank index is at roughly the same level it was two years ago – a very rare event[1]. Coming out of COVID, the sector rallied to a new peak in February 2022 when inflationary concerns took the index down over 20% in the following months, to levels it has remained on and off since. Part of the reason Canadian bank stocks have not risen…
Canadian Banks: Opportunities and Risks in 2023
The Canadian banks had a very tough 2022 falling 8.9% – just the 5th decline in the last 20 years, which includes financial crisis years of 2007 and 2008[1] (the sector even rose 3.8% in 2020, despite COVID). The main reason for the decline last year was falling price-to-earnings multiples caused by the market’s concern that global central banks could cause a recession by aggressively raising…
U.S. Financials: Mid-Caps Look Attractive, Despite Clouds (4 Reasons to Invest)
The U.S. mid-cap financials held up very well in 2022, in what was a very difficult year for the global financials. Risks that had not been seen for decades – like inflation – have returned, and the market’s fears that rising central bank rates could trigger a recession remain high. This has resulted in significant compression in price-to-earnings multiples as the market anticipates clouds ahead. Yet,…
Canadian Banks: Three Things to Watch in Q4
Even with the strong November, Canadian bank stocks are down ~15% peak-to-trough, reflecting the market’s concern of a possible global recession caused by central banks aggressively raising interest rates with the goal of taming inflation. At the same time, central bankers are also engaging in the relatively new policy of quantitative tightening (the effect of which cannot be quantified). The decline in Canadian bank share prices…
Canadian Banks: Should Investors be (More) Worried? (fQ3 in Charts)
As the market has priced in a higher risk of a recession, Canadian bank stocks have declined ~20% in just 5 months, including a ~10% decline since the sector started reporting Q3 results in late August. The market is worried that central banks will cause a recession as they aggressively raise interest rates to tame inflation. Further complicating their job is that central banks are simultaneously…